NATIONAL NEWS: Climate Change: 20,000 Aucklanders exposed to flood risk this century

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Nearly 20,000 Aucklanders living in eight harbor-edge communities face a future flood risk under projected sea level rises due to climate change, according to a new report.

More than 2,500 buildings would also be at risk along the eight coastal strips under scenarios modeled by researchers at Auckland Council, which declared a climate emergency in June.

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The low-lying areas at the greatest likelihood of flooding include suburbs along Tamaki Drive and the downtown waterfront, Bucklands Beach, Orewa, Onewa, Takapuna and Devonport in the north, and Onehunga-Otahuhu and Mount Wellington in the south.

Most of the scenarios are based on one-in-100 year storm surges, combined with a one-meter rise in sea levels which is forecast to occur by 2100, the end of this century.

The council is at pains to point out that the data is not new, but combining data the way they have is a first step in trying to pinpoint the local impacts of sea-level rise.

The new interim report uses a methodology that is still evolving, to assess what would be hit under various sea-level rise scenarios, but more groundwork is needed, for example, on whether buildings that are considered affected, really are.

“You’ve got things that go up very localized slopes, or floor levels – even if a building looks like it’s in a flood plain – maybe it’s not at risk,” said Sarah Sinclair, the chief engineer.

Locations such as Tamaki Drive are already well-known as flood-prone during storm surges, and between Orakei and St Heliers, the area around Kohimarama would experience the biggest inundation.

In total 344 buildings would be affected under the 1-meter rise and one-in-100 year storm scenario, and 2,222 residents would be exposed under the 3-metre rise scenario used nationally for population impacts.

Around harbor-edge Onehunga and Otahuhu, 454 buildings are in flood-exposed locations, with 2,750 residents affected.

At Bucklands Beach on the eastern coast, the 1-metre sea-level rise scenario combined with storm surges would affect an estimated 285 buildings and 1,900 people.

In the downtown area, up to 269 buildings would be affected, and 4,689 residents in lower-lying areas such as the Viaduct Basin, as well as Westhaven Marina and the port.

The new report joins seven others released at the council’s climate symposium in March, which painted a picture of rising temperatures, more frequent extreme weather, and the likelihood that poorer communities would bear a bigger share of the impact of climate change.

The council said the intention is not to alarm people, and action is not needed now to change the communities that will face future effects.

“There are two aspects – the emission side and the adaptation side – the emission side is the urgent bit and that’s where we need to think and act now,” said Jacques Victor, the general manager of research and strategy.

“On the adaptation side, that is much longer term and it is about understanding what may be – because nobody knows – and to think about long-term planning,” he said.

The detailed look at how climate change might affect some Auckland coastal communities, comes at the same time as criticism from the youth-led climate group Generation Zero, that Auckland Council is not moving fast enough to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The group said more action was needed than outlined in mayor Phil Goff’s proposed budget for next year, which focussed on changes inside the council.

“While it is important that the council leads by example in reducing its emissions, it is also responsible for reducing the emissions of the whole of Auckland, not just itself as an organization,” said Auckland co-convener Bruce Kidd.

Goff’s initiatives include reducing and electrifying the council’s fleet of cars over the next five years and replacing gas-fired boilers at aquatic centers, with a zero-emission plant.

Kidd acknowledged the budget proposal included “positive steps” and that the council’s own actions showed leadership.

“Leadership is not helpful in the long term without providing Auckland with infrastructure to change transport behaviour for everyone,” he said.

Of the mayor’s own promise that the council would plant 1.5 million trees this term, Kidd said: “While planting trees is important, it should not serve as a replacement for reducing Auckland’s emissions.”

The council early next year will release public feedback on its Climate Action Framework, which will be used to shape a bigger, longer-term program of action, tied to its next 10 Year Budget which will be drawn up for mid-2021.

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